Week 7 of the NFL is over, and what a week of blowouts it was! 6 of the 13 games were decided by 20 points or greater, and 11 of the 13 games were decided by 10 points or more! You don't have to be a Collinsworth to figure out the following: There are a lot of really bad teams out there. Parity, where are you? Well, let's take a look shall we?
According to my expert analysis, here's my breakdown:
Great teams = 5 (Broncos, Colts, Vikings, Giants, Saints)
Good teams = 7 (Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Cards, Bengals, Steelers, Pats)
Average teams = 8 (Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Jets, Ravens, Chargers, Jags, Texans)
Bad teams = 2 (Seahawks, Dolphins)
Awful teams = 10 (Redskins, Lions, Bucs, Rams, Panthers, Bills, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs)
So if we looked at a curve, you could say that we have perfect parity: 12 teams that are above average, 8 teams that are average, 12 teams that are below average. But when you break down the teams in slightly finer detail, you see how badly the awful teams disrupt the parity curve. And I personally don't think that awful accurately describes these awful teams. If it weren't for head to head competition and a couple of fluke games, we're talking 2-14 or worse for these teams.
What does this mean for the rest of the season? The way I see it, as long as one of those awful teams is playing a team that is average or better, expect a spread of 9 points or greater and expect a blowout. Bottom line, these teams just can't compete.
On the flip side, beware of the good and average teams. Are their records inflated because they have destroyed an awful team? On average, I'd be very leary when any of these good or average teams play a great team. Bet accordingly.
My expert picks will reflect this philosophy the rest of the year. Happy Picking!
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